Race historic, voters unpredictable

A year ago, Sen. Hillary Clinton seemed well on her way to coronation as the first female President of the United States of America.
Somewhere along the way, the Clinton coronation carriage lost its wheels. How all that happened will be discussed, debated and dissected for years. For now, though, all eyes are on the Clintons to see how they handle defeat. Her speech early last week did not inspire confidence they will handle it well.
Whatever you think about Sen. Clinton, or Bill, or Chelsea, for that matter, her race for the White House has been historic. So has that of her nemesis, Sen. Barack Obama. Both have broken barriers that have long protected White House access to white males. The difference is Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination for president and Hillary Clinton lost it. Given her penchant for power, losing her bid for the White House is a bitter pill to swallow.
To her credit, Sen. Clinton morphed from churlish to charitable later in the week, ‘suspending’ her campaign and endorsing Sen. Obama. Whether her words of support for his campaign will be matched by her deeds remains to be seen.
I predict her enthusiasm will depend largely on getting what she wants from Sen. Obama in terms of a substantive role in his campaign, and in his administration, if he defeats Sen. John McCain in November.
Notice I said if, not when. Conventional wisdom suggests the Democrats should win the White House by a landslide this year, but 2008 is an unconventional year for presidential politics.
For starters, it is the first time in a long time the race for the White House does not include an incumbent president or vice president. Despite the Democratic Party line, Sen. McCain is not running for a ‘third Bush term.’ Instead, he will win or lose the race on his own, albeit saddled by the perception, fueled by the Democrats, that he is a Bush man.
More important, it seems to me, 2008 propels to the forefront matters of race, religion, age and political ideology. For example, Barack Obama and others have suggested, or outright asserted, that we live in a ‘post-racial society.’ That is a noble, but na??ve notion. Sure, we’ve come a long way in race relations since slavery and segregation were the law of the land. Still, the vestiges of racism remain. We sense them in subtle and not so subtle ways, but they are there and they will matter.
Religion, age and political ideology matter too in our choices for president. They, like race, are part of ‘voter demographics’ ‘ a term used to suggest how voters might vote, based on one or more of those characteristics. As my former speech and politics students know, I prefer to call them ‘Voter VBAB’s.’ Simply stated, voters vote their values, beliefs and attitudes. Their behavior reflects and reinforces their values, beliefs and attitudes.
In short, ‘we, the people’ ultimately vote our gut feelings ‘ more so than on the nuances of policy or issues. We are also notoriously unpredictable. Therein may lie the real challenges for Democrats and Republicans in 2008.
Retired Army Col. Thomas B. Vaughn can be reached by e-mail at [email protected].