Census: Tennessee to add 1.7 million people by 2030

That’s enough people to fill Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga, Knoxville and Johnson City combined, and rank Tennessee as the 15th largest state in the country by 2030 with a population of nearly 7.4 million.

Vanderbilt University demographer Virginia Abernethy finds no good news in these numbers.

“It is very bad for the environment. It is a fiscal disaster. And if the future growth is from the same sources as the growth in the last four years, it will probably also greatly increase racial tensions,” she said, noting the large influx of immigrants to Tennessee, particularly from Latin America.

Urban sprawl and rising demands on public services could be in the offing, she said.

The census bureau doesn’t say where the growth will come from or where it will be most acute geographically — the figures were statewide only. But the 2000 Census showed a flood of immigrants into Tennessee in the prior decade, notably a 278 percent increase in the Latino population.

Despite the rise in population, Tennessee is not expected to add to its nine seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The projections suggest that the South and West will continue to have the largest population gains, with No. 1 California, No. 2 Texas and Florida, which is expected to supersede New York as No. 3, accounting for nearly half of the nation’s total growth by 2030.

Tennessee’s 29.7 percent growth rate mirrors a 29.2 percent growth prediction for the nation.

While Tennessee may not grow as fast as the South’s 42.9 percent rate as a whole, it still will be faster than several neighbors — Kentucky, 12.7 percent; Alabama, 9.6 percent; Mississippi, 8.7 percent; Arkansas 21.2 percent, and West Virginia, minus 4.9 percent.

By comparison, South Carolina will rise 28.2 percent; North Carolina, 51.9 percent; Virginia, 38.8 percent, Texas 59.8 percent, and Florida, 79.5 percent.

The biggest change will be the aging population. Every state now has more residents 18 years old and younger than those 65 and older. By 2030, that will reverse in 10 states — Florida, Delaware, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Tennessee’s over-65 population should double by 2030 to about 1.4 million residents — or about one of every five Tennesseans, up from about one of every eight in 2000. Nearly four of every 10 people that Tennessee will add in the next 25 years will be part of this group.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s 18-and-under population should grow from 1.4 million to about 1.8 million by 2030. This group will continue to represent about one in every four Tennesseans.