Tennessee poll shows Bush, Kerry even
NASHVILLE (AP) — A new poll shows President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry in a virtual dead heat among Tennessee voters, as support for the war in Iraq wanes and concern about the economy increases.
The poll, which gauged opinion on a number of issues, also found that Gov. Phil Bredesen continues to enjoy huge popularity.
“This is all really optimistic news for us,” Tennessee Democratic Party Chairman Randy Button said.
The Middle Tennessee State University poll, taken Feb. 16 to Feb. 28, found that 48 percent of Tennesseans would favor Bush, while 44 percent would choose Kerry. That is within the margin of error of plus- or minus-4 percentage points in the poll of 701 voting-age state residents.
The results closely mirror those found in recent national polls pitting Kerry against Bush.
“There’s going to be a lot of polls between now and election day, and the only poll that will matter is going to be the one on election day,” Republican Party Chairwoman Beth Harwell said.
She said voters will turn away from Kerry as the campaign ramps up and they learn more about his voting record in Congress.
The state poll found that those who support the war in Iraq could be in the minority, with 47 percent saying going to war was worthwhile and 48 percent saying it was not. In a poll last fall by the same researchers, 54 percent of respondents thought the war was worthwhile.
Worries about the economy now trump terrorism as the nation’s biggest problem, respondents said. The poll found 19 percent said they are dissatisfied with the economy, while terrorism was cited as the chief concern by 15 percent. Pollsters said that was a dramatic switch from the previous poll that found terrorism should be the nation’s priority.
“People have just got worn out on the issue (of terrorism),” said Robert Wyatt, a professor of journalism and director of communication research at MTSU in Murfreesboro. “And if you think about it, the threat hasn’t materialized. What am I supposed to be afraid of?”
The pollsters said they found that 63 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the direction the United States is generally heading.
“The number one problem for people in this state is the economy,” Button said. “(Bush and Kerry) are in a dead heat because of George Bush’s failure to create jobs and his failure to balance the budget.”
The poll found that Bush’s strongest support came from white Evangelical Christians, while a big base for Kerry was found among blacks, 84 percent of whom said they would vote for the Massachusetts senator.
Just after Bredesen released a new budget and unveiled a blueprint for dealing with runaway costs at TennCare, the pollsters found his approval rating at 72 percent. Last fall his approval rating was 56 percent.
“He has been politically masterful, he has been very practical — not ideological,” Wyatt said.
On state issues, 24 percent of respondents said health care was Tennessee’s biggest concern, followed by 14 percent who said the economy was the state’s biggest issue. That was a switch from the fall poll, which found education the main state concern, followed by the economy and health care.
Other findings showed 29 percent said the state’s economy was excellent, and that 47 percent approve of Bredesen’s new budget.