Armchair Quarterback: Separating contenders, pretenders
Coming into week four of the NFL season, we have six undefeated teams, some of whom are contenders and others of whom are pretenders.
Granted, some people tend to get over-excited when a team goes 3-0 to start the season. We’ve all seen teams come apart during the fall months after a strong start or collapse down the stretch during December.
As for this year’s crop of undefeated hopefuls, it would appear Kansas City is the strongest of the group and the most likely to continue their strong run throughout the year. A major reason for this is a strong running game and good defense, the two things that usually prove to be the difference makers when the winter months arrive. I know this is unusual when you consider they are a squad coached by Dick Vermeil who is known for his high-flying passing game; however, they are getting it done in the trenches this year.
I remember a press conference the year the Titans went to the Super Bowl. During the conference, Coach Jeff Fisher was being grilled about his conservative offense and the fact he insisted on grinding the ball on the ground.
“Just wait until December and the playoffs, when the weather is bad and teams are beat up,” Fisher said. “Then you come back and ask me why we are committed to grinding it out on the ground.”
While many doubted him, Fisher was right in his assessment. To compete down the stretch you must have the bruising running game and tight defense. That is, unless you’re the Rams and play in a dome, which is the only recent exception to that rule.
Looking down the remainder of undefeated teams, the surprising Carolina Panthers also have the same strategy as evidenced in their fight with the Bucs a couple weeks ago. However, they do not have the explosiveness as do the Chiefs, nor do they have Priest Holmes.
Minnesota is also undefeated, but once again, they are without their main running threat and are having to rely on Moe Williams. Plus, Daunte Culpepper is nursing broken bones in his back which could end up benching him for a while in the coming weeks. They do have the advantage of being in the weakest division in the NFL given the demise of the Packers and they should cruise into the playoffs.
The Seahawks are going to be a contender this year. They have Shaun Alexander in the backfield plus they have a very good defensive team and Mike Holmgren has his squad right where he wants them. They also made their statement against the Rams last week, showing they are to be taken seriously.
Conversely, the Colts are pretenders. I’m still not convinced Edgerrin James is back to his old form and the dome teams tend to be soft on the road. They could give the Titans a run in the division simply due to lack of competition in the AFC South, but I don’t think the Colts are a threat to go all the way.
The final undefeated team going into today is the Broncos. They are the one team I just don’t get a read on. With Clinton Portis, they should have a good offensive assault, although their defense is questionable. The key there will be new quarterback Jake Plummer. He will be the X-factor there which will decide if they can emerge from their very competitive division.
Of course, I’m not limiting the contenders to those who are undefeated. Losing early is not a big problem and I’d still put the Dolphins, Raiders, Bucs, Niners, Giants, Eagles and yes, even the Ravens, in the contenders role this year.