Rogers and Hamblen are dead even: Poll shows judicial race close between Stanley and Newman
A race which came down to 20 votes in 1998 looks to be just as tight again with a Southern Standard poll showing incumbent Carol Hamblen and Democratic rival Kenneth Rogers dead even.
The poll, which sampled more than 200 registered voters over a two-week period this month, showed that not only were Hamblen and Rogers equal percentage wise, but they even received the exact number of votes in the poll which concluded yesterday. Both Hamblen and Rogers finished with 45 percent apiece while independent Bob Warren was trailing them both with 10 percent. However, for Warren, the 10 percent is a dramatic jump as he had just 2 percent of the votes in a poll this May.
The recent poll marked a change of luck for Rogers, who, during the May pre-primary poll, trailed Hamblen by 14 percent.
“It looks like I’ve made up some ground,” Rogers said after hearing the poll results. “I’m going to continue what I’ve been doing, knocking on doors and talking to people, trying to stay visible.”
Hamblen said she will also intensify her efforts this week given the closeness of the race.
“It just makes me want to work all the harder,” Hamblen said. “It’s been a good campaign and I look forward to meeting more people this week.”
Both candidates noted there are still many voters out there who did not vote early and therefore both campaigns can have an impact in the stretch run. A total of 4,307 people voted early, and, given similar past elections where around 10,000 of Warren County’s 21,000 register voters vote, more than half are yet to cast their ballots.
It should also be noted the poll has a margin for error of roughly 5 percent. The first poll conducted in May was extremely accurate with none of the races exceeding the margin for error.
In addition to the overall poll, exit polling was conducted outside early voting Friday and Saturday. Hamblen won the exit polling Friday while Rogers won Saturday. Warren took second behind Rogers in exit polling Saturday.
While the executive’s race is tight, the race for circuit judge will also apparently go down to the wire as the long-standing front-runners, Bart Stanley and Robert Newman, again commanded most of the votes.
Stanley, who received 43 percent of the vote in the recent poll, saw his lead shrink over Newman, who had 39 percent. In the May pole, Stanley had a 17 percent lead over Newman.
The remaining three candidates remained significantly behind the front-runners with Richard McGregor placing third with 9 percent, up 3 percent from his May showing. Keith Smartt had 6 percent, the exact same place he was in May. Peg Stewart was fifth with 3 percent, down 3 percent from her showing in May.
The poll included only Warren County voters and did not take into account Van Buren County which will likely contribute about one-sixth of the overall vote for circuit judge.
“I think Van Buren County will make a difference in this race,” Stanley said. “I think the campaign is going well thus far and I’m hearing a lot of good feedback.”
Newman said he has no plans of letting up during the stretch run.
“I’ve been working really hard and I intend to keep doing that all the way through,” Newman said. “I appreciate the support I’ve received from people around the community.”
In the race for Trustee, incumbent Joy Slatton remained in the lead; however, no one made a bigger jump in the polls from May to July than did her opponent, Emily Panter. The poll showed Slatton with 59 percent to Panter’s 41 percent. However, in May, while Slatton and fellow Democrat Darlene Bryant were locking horns, Panter had only 6 percent of the votes.
In addition to her quick jump, Panter won exit polling Saturday after Slatton took honors in Friday’s exiting poll.
The remaining races were not so tight as Sheriff Jackie Matheny continued to hold a commanding lead in his bid for a third term as sheriff.
Matheny finished with 81 percent, a number which was actually down 10 percent from the May poll. Second was Mason Black who entered the race late and is mounting a write-in campaign. Black captured 10 percent of the poll vote, finishing second to Matheny in the overall poll and in both exit polls. Everett Pearsall finished third with 5 percent, up 1 percent from May, just ahead of Doc Smith with 4 percent, which was the same as the May poll.
Terry Smith also held a healthy lead in his bid for a second term as Register of Deeds. Smith finished with 79 percent compared to Susan Curtis’ 21 percent. Curtis received only 6 percent of the vote in May while Smith was staving off a challenge in the Democratic Primary by Randy England.
The poll, which was the second of the election season by the Standard, comes on the heels of a successful poll in May. However, Election Administrator Donna Yates warned polls can be fickle and the only poll that counts is the one which ends Aug. 1.
“I’m just not a fan of polls,” Yates said. “It all comes down to who you talk to. You’ll never convince me polls are a good thing.”