Armchair Quarterback: Gentlemen, start your brackets
It’s time for the NCAA brackets. Time for heartache, second-guessing and, in some rare cases, jubilation as you outwit those other poor slobs.
Over the next few weeks, the question “how is your bracket looking” will be asked numerous times. Many will respond they threw their brackets away a week ago. The chosen few will whip their brackets out of their pockets and show it off like pictures of their grandkids. If a person is carrying their bracket on their person, they’ve got a winner.
However, as you regular players know, there’s many pitfalls on the way to winning your pool. They’ll always be that favorite which leaves the dance early and the underdog which makes it deep. Last year, Syracuse ended up being a big time bracket buster. Not may people saw that coming.
But, being a long-time bracketologist, there’s several rules of thumb that come into play each year. First, you can bet a 12 seed will beat a five seed in the first round or a 13 seed will knock off a four seed. Generally these upsets come from a overlooked team from a non-major conference. Teams like Dayton should be feared should they make the dance. Let’s not forget what Marquette did last year.
Of course, the major mistake made in filling out a bracket is taking the favorites all the way to the end. If you fall into this trap, I can pretty well say you won’t win. I’ve never seen a person who took the favorites in all the rounds, win a pool. There’s just too many upsets, therefore it is key to make leaps of faith and trust your gut. There’s been many a year I’ve kicked myself because I passed on picking an upset which I felt in my gut, a pick which would have given me a big advantage in the bracket.
The number one seeds are always the biggest traps. Every year those Dukes and Kentuckys look mighty tempting at number one, but each year, at least two of the top seeds never make it to the Final Four. On the contrary, the number two and three seeds tend to be the teams who make the final cut. Anything beyond four seed is a long shot since very few five seeds and lower make it to the Final Four.
This year is a bit different. While I’m writing this before tonight’s NCAA selection show, the prospective top seeds aren’t really that dominant. You have early favorites like Mississippi State, Kentucky, Duke and Stanford. You also have teams like Gonzaga, ranked at number-three and Pittsburgh, ranked at six in the ESPN poll, both of whom are very dangerous and should go deep.
There are a few teams I’m considering damaged goods going in to the tourney which may be overvalued by some due to their high rankings.
First we have 9th ranked Connecticut who may be missing center Emeka Okafor, their best player, who has a compression fracture in his back. It’s not career threatening but it is painful and the tourney is very physically demanding.
While I’ll sit down Monday and determine who I’ll pick in my bracket, one thing I do know is that the number-one St. Joseph’s team will not make my 16, barring a cake walk in the first two rounds. Xavier showed St. Joe’s weakness when it comes to size as they bashed them by 20 this week.
Sure, St. Joe’s has Jameer Nelson, the best guard in the game, but they are size challenged. When you depend on high-percentage perimeter shooting, it’s doubtful you’ll make it all the way because there’ll be that one off night.
Also, I don’t trust Stanford. Sure, they had a perfect record up until the loss of their final regular season game against Washington, but there were a lot of buzzer beaters against mediocre teams. There’s only so many buzzer beaters in the bag of tricks and I believe Stanford has used theirs.
As for who I will pick, they’ll be reflected on my bracket. To reveal such information beforehand in public would either make me look like an idiot or genius, and if it happens to be the latter, I don’t want people stealing my thunder.