Kerry’s VP needs some zip
Although Democrats invariably say their party is “pumped” to beat President Bush, primary election turnout numbers don’t confirm it – a factor Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., might consider when he selects his running mate.
Total Democratic turnout in the 30 primaries and caucuses through Super Tuesday was 8.85 million according to one GOP analysis, well behind the 11.28 million recorded during 21 Republican contests in 2000, when Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was challenging George W. Bush.
The most-discussed candidates for the No. 2 spot have definite virtues – and drawbacks – but none of them will exactly light up the sky for Kerry.
Who would? Well, McCain would for sure. And, despite his rather firm denials that he’d ever abandon his party, some serious Democrats still harbor vague hopes of getting him to defect.
McCain himself told the New York Post, “Do you think the Democrats would want a pro-life, free-trading, fiscal conservative? They’d be smoking something pretty strong, stronger than they usually do.” He added, “I will not leave the Republican Party.”
Moreover, aides point out, McCain is co-chairman of Bush’s re-election campaign in Arizona. So, I’d say the chances of a Kerry-McCain ticket actually are close to one in a million.
So, who else would get the electorate turned on? Probably Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) though she’d also be polarizing – along with her husband – and might outshine President Kerry if the ticket actually got elected.
Would Sen. Clinton do it? Why not? She’d be doing her party a big favor, enhancing her already-formidable claims on the 2008 nomination if the ticket lost. And, if it won, she’d have the 2012 nomination for the asking.
The reason Kerry needs excitement, frankly, is that he tends to be dour, ponderous and long-winded on the stump. He’s demonstrated he can be upbeat and energetic on occasion, but — as his victory speech on Super Tuesday indicated — he tends to lapse.
In almost every state prior to Super Tuesday, the exits showed that voters felt they agreed more with Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) on the issues and felt he had a more positive message than Kerry did.
Last Tuesday, that remained true in some states – including Maryland, Connecticut and Georgia – but not in Ohio, California and New York, where Kerry led on the issues.
At the moment, the upbeat Edwards is the Democrats’ sentimental favorite for VP, but he lacks governing experience and probably can’t help Kerry in the South. He does project charisma, though.
Other oft-named contenders have a good deal less personal magnetism — Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, and Florida Sens. Bob Graham and Bill Nelson.
If Kerry selected one of them, it would be for the states they might help him carry. Bayh, Gephardt and Nelson also voted not only to authorize the Iraq war, but also to pay for the aftermath, which Kerry and Edwards did not.
Kerry’s need for added energy is evident in primary turnout figures, which show no better than average voter enthusiasm.
In the 19 states where Democratic primaries were held this year (excluding caucuses), Republican turnout was higher in 2000 in 13. In the other six, three – Delaware, Massachusetts and Maryland – have significantly more registered Democrats than Republicans.
So, who’d pump Democratic turnout? Former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn? Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack? Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin? Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu? None of the above is an obvious lamplighter. But then, charisma isn’t everything.
(Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.)