The next Democratic party-switcher? Could be a while
Those Democrats who now hold the “most conservative” mantle, including a good portion from the South, insist they have no plans of defecting, largely because their differences with the party aren’t quite as stark as Hall’s or numerous other party-switchers who preceded him.
They didn’t switch as the once-solid Democratic South trended for Republicans. They didn’t switch when Newt Gingrich and a new crop of GOP freshmen took hold of the U.S. House a decade ago. They didn’t switch after the election of President Bush, or the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, or the war in Iraq.
So if they haven’t switched by now, when will they? Never, predict some observers who contend it’s not that these lawmakers aren’t conservative, it’s that they aren’t conservative enough.
“Their voting records are not as vastly opposed as one would think,” said Bruce Oppenheimer, a Vanderbilt University political scientist. “There’s almost nobody left who votes more often with Republicans than Democrats now that Ralph Hall is gone. Go back 20 years, there were lots.”
First-term Rep. Rodney Alexander, D-La., had briefly considered joining the GOP this past week but then changed his mind. Switching parties might have had political advantages for Alexander, who faces a tough challenge from a former GOP congressman.
Although Alexander supported the war in Iraq and President Bush’s tax cuts, rankings by Congressional Observer Publications show he voted with Democrats last year three times as much as he did with Republicans.
In fact, only one Democrat in the House or Senate voted more with Republicans than his own party in 2003 — Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia. Miller has endorsed President Bush’s re-election bid and most of his legislative efforts, but he has resisted the temptation to switch — even when the defection of then-Republican Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont temporarily shifted Senate control to Democrats. The popular former governor says he will retire next year as a Democrat.
Still, Miller’s party opposition record is historic, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly. Last year, Miller opposed party leaders on 91 percent of key votes. That’s the most contrarian one-year score in the half-century that the publication has tracked party unity or lack thereof.
The most conservative House Democrat is probably now Kentucky’s Ken Lucas, who Congressional Observer says opposed his party on 54 percent of votes in 2002 and 30 percent last year. Lucas opted to vote “present” rather than back Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in leadership elections, but he says he feels more at home among Pelosi and the Democrats than Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas and the Republicans.
“It really is just, I guess, where my heart is,” Lucas said. “I think probably the Democratic Party is getting a little smarter. They’ve taken some stands on a national basis that they’ve backed off of because they know it doesn’t work for people in certain parts of the country.”
The South, to be specific. Sen. Richard Shelby thought Democrats were doing a poor job connecting to the region, so he switched to the GOP. For years, he has lobbied a fellow Alabamian — Rep. Bud Cramer — to do the same.
“Would we like to have Bud Cramer in the Republican Party?” Shelby said. “He would fit in well, but that’s a decision he’ll have to make.”
So far, the decision is “no,” although Cramer says he appreciates the effort and hasn’t ruled out the possibility.
“I’m where I need to be,” said Cramer, one of the founding members of the Blue Dog Coalition for conservative Democrats. “I have struck, much like Zell Miller, quite an independent path. I feel I’ve bonded with my constituency here more over issues than a political party. If they ever make me uncomfortable, then we’ll see what happens.”
Perhaps no Democratic congressman has a stronger incentive to switch than Texas’ Charlie Stenholm, who voted with Republicans 32 percent of the time last year, but he says his resolve to stay with the party has never been stronger. DeLay redrew the Texas congressional map to capture more Republican seats, including pitting Stenholm against a GOP incumbent in a conservative district.
“Would I be comfortable as a Republican marching lock step with Tom Delay? No way,” said Stenholm, a fellow Blue Dog founder. “There has been a trend toward Republicanism, but Republicans have been in charge of Congress now going on 10 years. Pretty soon they’re going to have to quit running against liberal Democrats and start running on their own platform.”
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