Taking a Stand: The only poll that counts is held Aug. 1
Is any election really cut and dry? Do polls tell the tale or are they simply a calculated guess on how an election will turn out?
It’s no secret we have two local political races which are going to come down to the wire. Even Las Vegas book makers would have trouble setting the line on the races for county executive and circuit judge this year. Who’s winning these races? Well, it depends on who you’re talking to.
If you go by my poll a couple of months ago, Bart Stanley had a 17-point lead over Robert Newman with the rest of the field quite a ways back while Carol Hamblen led Kenneth Rogers by 12 points with Bob Warren quite a bit behind. My poll involved a “scientific” sampling of 200 likely voters, and, if you look at the track record of its accuracy in the Democratic Primary, it was dead on.
However, this was a poll taken two months ago, when some campaigns had scarcely begun, so things may have well changed significantly. Thus, my marching orders to conduct Sherrill Poll II in the coming week for release prior to the Aug. 1 election.
Of course, then you have the Medley Classic Diner poll which showed Newman with a lead over Stanley and Hamblen with a double-digit lead on Rogers. Their poll, and they’ll tell you this, wasn’t as scientific because anyone could vote so long as they were in the diner at the time the poll was taken. However, their poll is more recent than my first one.
Regardless, I believe we have two tight horse races on our hands, no matter what anybody’s poll says. I think we’ll be waiting for the final precincts before we know the winner of the executive and judgeship races. And, let’s not forget, about 2,000 votes in the judgeship race will be coming from Van Buren County where I’ve heard of no early polls. Seeing Warren County will vote about 10,000 or more, this means Van Buren County will provide one in six of the votes for judge.
And, while on the subject of polls, let me point out some not-so-distant county history where the odds-on favorites were beaten on election day. Two races which immediately come to mind happened in the 1980s. One saw Billy Delaney defeat favored Doug Deaton for sheriff in a year which everyone was saying Deaton would win. The same was true when Wilbur McGee defeated incumbent Volmar Chisam for road superintendant in a race oddsmakers would have easily given Chisam the nod. Then, around the same time, there was the governor’s race where Jake Butcher was way ahead in the polls, only to fall to a newcomer named Lamar Alexander on election day.
Even though early voting is going on, there are still many variables which can affect the results. For instance, Rogers’ no-show at the debate obviously will have an impact on his showing at the polls, something which could not have been figured in even two weeks ago. Richard McGregor’s foot injury which has limited his campaign appearances down the stretch, was a nonfactor before July 4. Heck, even the weather could decide such close races because a rainy day will keep some people at home on election day.
Bottom line is that in races as tight as these two, there’s no real good way to gauge a winner in advance since the winning margin may come from folks who make up their minds when they are standing in front of the voting machine. And it may not even be the front runners who get the nod from the voters. The last county executive’s race was decided by 20 votes and I’ll wager at least that many people made up their minds even as their finger was dangling over the balloting lever.
Sure, you’ll have polls to look at, but polls never elected anyone. The only poll that counts is the one you’ll hear on the night of Aug. 1.
(Duane Sherrill is crime and court reporter for the Standard. He can be reached at 473-2191 or by e-mail at [email protected].)