Beaten Colts’ next goal may be a hard one
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. ? Here is the worst possible scenario for the Indianapolis Colts: The New England Patriots, getting healthier, win their first-round playoff game and arrive at the RCA Dome primed to do just what they’ve done for the past two seasons ? bounce the Colts out of the playoffs.
Coming off this weekend’s results, it seems more than possible.
It might even be a pretty good bet.
Say the Colts cruise through the last two games ? win, lose, who cares? ? as Jim Sorgi, Dominic Rhodes, Aaron Moorehead and some even lesser-known guys play a lot against Seattle and Arizona. The starters see enough action to keep their edge and wounded guys such as Robert Mathis, Corey Simon and Ryan Diem heal up. That’s the reward they get for starting 13-0 and getting home-field advantage in the postseason.
Now think about their likely playoff opponents.
The Colts have dispatched Denver from the playoffs easily the last two seasons 41-10 and 49-24, so they probably won’t mind seeing the Broncos too much. Pittsburgh isn’t the same team it was last year and lost 26-7 in the dome on Nov. 28. And Cincinnati, 45-37 loser to the Colts in Paul Brown Stadium on Nov. 20, has almost no one with playoff experience. Cincy seems a little too young and brash to get by the Colts on the road.
But think about a second-round matchup between the Patriots and the host Colts. Because when/if they meet, the Colts won’t be playing the same New England team they beat 40-21 in Foxborough on Nov. 7.
“I think we’ve gotten a little better in the last month,” an understated Bill Belichick said after his team beat on Tampa Bay, an NFC playoff contender, 28-0 on Saturday.
Beyond that, New England, though only 9-5, will get some rest, too. It has already clinched what is arguably the NFL’s worst division and has no chance of getting a first-round bye. So the wounded players who haven’t fully healed yet, such as left tackle Matt Light, can continue to work into shape.
The way the seedings break down right now, the Patriots will get their first game at home against warm-weather Jacksonville, hardly a fearsome opponent after stumbling to a 10-9 victory over San Francisco on Sunday.
Yes, David Garrard is pretty good for a backup quarterback, but going into Foxborough in January with hardly any playoff experience against a three-time Super Bowl winner quarterbacked by Tom Brady? OK, Jimmy Smith played in the postseason back during the last century, when Tom Coughlin coached the Jags, but that’s about it.
If the Patriots win that game? They have a good shot at meeting Indy in the second round, the weekend of Jan. 14-15. It’s not guaranteed because the NFL re-seeds after the first round, and if the sixth seed ? New England would be No. 4 ? wins in the first round (Pittsburgh, perhaps), it would go to Indianapolis and the Pats would play the second-seeded team, either Denver or Cincinnati.
But the Patriots and Colts still could meet in the AFC title game.
And whenever they play, think about this: New England plays a 3-4 defense similar to the Chargers’ 3-4 that was in Peyton Manning’s face all day Sunday. Two of Manning’s tormentors were rookies Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo, and a third was a second-year man, Igor Olshansky.
New England has far more experience and playoff savvy. Now that Tedy Bruschi has rounded into form, Richard Seymour has returned from injury and Mike Vrabel has moved to inside LB, it has to have one of the most experienced and skilled front sevens in football.
Think Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren (plus Jarvis Green) up front with Willie McGinest, Bruschi, Vrabel and a rejuvenated Rosevelt Colvin at linebacker. They shut down Carnell “Cadillac” Williams on Saturday and sacked Chris Simms seven times, ensuring that Simms couldn’t exploit the improved but still shaky secondary.
Sure, Williams is a rookie, Simms is green and the Bucs’ receivers, even a rejuvenated Joey Galloway, aren’t close to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley.
But think of the psychological ramifications, despite that Nov. 7 game, Manning’s first win in Foxborough after seven losses.
Even with a 13-0 start, the Colts have won nothing yet. The Patriots have won three titles in four seasons and have their own history to shoot for, trying to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. With all due respect to Tony Dungy (career record 106-64), he is 5-7 in the postseason to Belichick’s 10-1. And with all due respect to Manning (with his records and MVP trophies), Brady has three rings and he has none.
Yes, the Colts will rebound from Sunday’s loss. But their prospects of reaching the ultimate goal will improve markedly if someone ? anyone ? knocks off the Patriots before they get to Indy.
The Colts can win, exorcising a lot of demons for Dungy, Manning and the rest. But you also can bet they will fear the Patriots.