Frist predicts dire consequences if flu pandemic hits U.S.
His speech at the National Press Club highlighted a congressional report which said a pandemic flu could cost the U.S. economy $675 billion. Frist had requested the study.
The senator told reporters that panic and economic shutdown resulting from a widespread flu could mimic the effects of a major recession.
“The bigger cost ? or an equal cost ? is caused by misunderstanding, misinformation, a lack of trust … that’s why we’ve got to act now,” he said.
Proper preparation could save as much as half the predicted toll, which would result from transportation and infrastructure shutdowns along with reduced demand for services, he said.
Scientists worldwide are monitoring the H5N1 virus strain of avian flu for signs of a possible future pandemic. So far it has mostly affected birds, but some worry it could mutate into a form that is easily transferable among humans.
Concern about the effects of the virus in the U.S. accelerated after Hurricane Katrina, when officials were blamed for not having done enough to prevent the effects of the disaster.
Frist said doctors, scientists and officials have to work together.
“Science and technology afford us the power to allay the direct effects. Sound public policy ? grounded in communication and information ? renders us the ability to ease the indirect effects,” Frist said.
The study assumed a three-month flu outbreak in which 90 million Americans are infected and 2 million die. It estimated the chances of such a severe flu at less than one-third of one percent annually.
With cinematic imagery, Frist described the ravages of a pandemic flu: “Bodies pile up in the streets. … Normal life stops. The churches close, the schools shutter. Communications and transportation grind to a halt.”
The study estimated an 80 percent reduction in demand for entertainment, restaurants and recreation, declining travel and surging demand for medical services and hospitals, he said. Additionally, it assumed 1 million workers would die and 30 percent of the work force would miss at least three weeks of work, he said.
Frist and the Bush administration have called for $7.1 billion in emergency funding for pandemic preparation.
Frist recommended the immediate establishment of a communications system. Calling communication “the antidote for irrational fear” and drawing as a cautionary example the chaotic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, he proposed a system that would update public every 6 to 8 hours on symptoms, cases, deaths, outbreak locations and places to find care.
That system must be grounded in “trust and reliability,” he said.
He also called for careful surveillance of flu outbreaks and the aggressive production of antiviral medicines and vaccines.
The report based many of its findings on the 1918-1919 Spanish flu, which killed tens of millions of people worldwide.