Can Hilary win presidency?

Question: Who are Angela Merkel and Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf? Answer: Merkel has just taken office as Germany’s first female chancellor, and Johnson-Sirleaf, Liberia’s president-elect, will be the first woman to head an African state.

In the last generation, countries as diverse as Israel, India and Great Britain have also chosen female leaders. Yet the United States has never taken a woman seriously as a presidential candidate. Until now.

Three years before the next election, Hillary Clinton is the popular favorite for the Democratic nomination. Sure, a lot of that is just name recognition, but the polls are still significant. And in a new book, “The Case for Hillary Clinton” (HarperCollins), Democratic consultant and TV commentator Susan Estrich argues Clinton should be the nation’s 44th president.

We agree with Estrich that electing a woman would have an extremely beneficial impact on American life. As she writes: “It would change the voice of authority that comes into every home in the world every night.” But the real question is this: Can Hillary win? Estrich says yes. We’re not convinced.

To Clinton’s credit, she is making the right moves to bolster her candidacy. Unlike many Democrats, she can actually count, and with only 21 percent of all voters calling themselves liberals in the last election, it’s lunacy to believe that the route to a Democratic revival runs through the purist precincts of Cambridge, Madison and Berkeley.

So how does Hillary get from 46 percent to 51 percent? Move to the middle. One example: she has called abortion “a tragic choice to many, many women” and artfully avoided the hard-line feminists who want her to share their rigid, pro-choice position. Another: she’s supported the Iraq war and refused to join fellow Democrats in calling for a swift withdrawal.

Her abortion posture is good politics. Most Americans agree with the fair-minded balance enunciated by the Supreme Court: keep the procedure legal but allow reasonable restrictions.

At one time, Clinton’s pro-war position seemed shrewd as well, and it still helps her close the “toughness gap” that faces any woman seeking national leadership. But with public support dwindling for President Bush’s Iraqi adventure, Clinton is out of step with a growing segment of Democratic primary voters.

Hillary’s secret weapon might be her faith. Parents are deeply frightened of losing their children to the lures of rap music and video games, and as Estrich writes, she is positioning herself to run as a religious woman and devoted mother who’s “ready to stand up to Hollywood and stand up for the children.”

Will that be enough? Clinton is a hugely polarizing figure. Two-in-five Americans tell the Gallup Poll they are virtually certain to vote against her, leaving little margin for error. History is a bigger problem.

Since 1968 the Democrats have nominated five northerners — Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry — and every one has lost. In that same period, Democrats have won only three elections, once with Jimmy Carter and twice with Bill Clinton. Both Southerners, both governors. Only two sitting lawmakers have ever captured the Oval Office (John F. Kennedy and Warren G. Harding) and that’s no an accident.

It is long past time for America to elect a female president. Germany and Liberia have set an example that embarrasses this country. But as a female senator from New York, Hillary starts with three strikes against her — job, gender and geography. So it’s hard to see how she becomes the first woman to defy history.

Steve and Cokie Roberts can be contacted by e-mail at [email protected].