Long layoffs lead to parity in bowl games
If there?s one thing as changeable as the weather in Tennessee (last Friday 72 degrees, this past Friday 17 degrees), then it?s the transformation bowl teams go through during the month they are waiting to play their bowl.
How about LSU over Miami 40-3, or even West Virginia?s win over a powerhouse Georgia last bowl season? None of these things make sense when you look at them from a regular season point of view.
Those of you who like playing bowl picking contests, much like we do in our pigskin panel in the sports page here at the paper, know there are some real head-scratchers that come out during bowl season. I suspect this year will be no different, ranging from the first bowl, being the Poinsettia Bowl between TCU and North Illinois, and the final game, being the BCS Title Game between Ohio State and Florida (which is technically not a bowl but instead a game added to the mix to determine the champion).
So why the difference from the regular season? We all know there are very few real upsets in college football when you compare it to things like professional football and even college basketball, where upsets are much more common. Face it, there is no way MTSU, even on their best day, could beat Ohio State in football. However, put them on a basketball court together during the NCAA tourney and all bets are off. You just never know. Ask Tennessee about Wichita State last year.
However, unlike the football bowl season, NCAA basketball teams don?t have to wait up to two months between regular season and postseason. When Ohio State takes the field against Florida on Jan. 8, it will have been two months since their beating of Michigan, which marked the last game for both them and the Wolverines.
The question is how will this affect the Buckeyes given the rust which has to set in seeing practice is not replacement for real game conditions? Peyton Manning and the Colts can attest that rust can creep in as they were the shell of their regular season form last year when they lost to the Steelers in the playoffs after winding it down early at the end of the regular season. And, keep in mind, for Indy it was just a couple of weeks off, not a couple of months.
The benefit for the Buckeyes in this scenario is that Florida will also not have played for about a month, so it?s not like the Gators are driving right from one game to another. The question will be as to which team can best rebound from inactivity.
It is this inactivity, I believe, which gives us some weird winners when it comes to bowl season. You have some good teams which don?t train well for the postseason, while the lesser teams get the eye of the tiger and come to play come bowl day. Just glancing at the schedule, you?d think Kentucky would get killed by Clemson in the Music City Bowl; however, for the Wildcats, this is the first bowl since Reagan was in office so they will be taking it much more seriously than a team which its their way out of a bowl just two years ago.
Then there?s the Fiesta blowout with Oklahoma versus Boise State. At first glance this should be PG-13, but a long rest and the Broncos with something to prove, carrying all the mid-majors on their backs, this game could prove interesting.
In short, I think the ability to regain form after a long layoff is the deciding factor in most bowls today. What would have been a blowout in October could be a barn-burner on New Year?s Day.