Israeli-Hezbollah winners and losers
After more than a month of fierce fighting and less than a week of precarious peace, the latest Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is being analyzed widely for signs of winners and losers.
Given the loss of blood and treasure on both sides, and the carnage and chaos levied on Lebanon and Israel, it is tempting to conclude there were no winners, only losers this time around.?Still, all wars, large and small, have their winners and losers, in relative terms anyway.
I think the first big winner this time is Hezbollah.?Apparently, they put their six-year presence in southern Lebanon to very good use.?Fighting on familiar, well-prepared terrain, they fought the vaunted Israeli Army hand-to-hand, man-to-man, and thwarted the Israeli invasion designed to eject them from southern Lebanon.
Whether Hezbollah actually won, in a strictly military sense, is irrelevant.?What counts is whether they won in their hearts and minds and in those of their supporters. In war, as in politics, perceptions are often tantamount to reality.?
The new reality for Hezbollah seems to be unprecedented popularity and prestige in the Middle East.?In the eyes of many, including Lebanese and even Iraqis, Hezbollah stood up to Israeli forces and stopped them in their tracks.?Perceived victory can be a magnet for recruiting more Hezbollah fighters and obtaining the support required to sustain them as a formidable fighting force.
Iran and Syria may also be big winners from the ?34-Day War.? Leaders of both countries were quick to praise Hezbollah and pillory Israel and the USA.?The Iranian president boasted to a cheering crowd that ?God?s promises have come true.? Meanwhile, the Syrian president asserted that U.S. plans for reshaping the Middle East have been ruined.? Both of their claims may be way overstated, but the success of their ally Hezbollah could strengthen their respective positions of power, in the region, and in relations with the West.
The first big loser this time may be the Israeli military.?They failed to achieve their main military goal of eliminating Hezbollah as a threat to Israel?s national security.?Their ground attacks bogged down against stiff resistance, and Hezbollah rockets continued to rain down on Israel throughout the conflict.? Meanwhile, the Israeli air attacks leveled large areas of Lebanon, killing hundreds and wounding thousands, mostly civilians.?
In turn, this apparently disproportionate use of airpower may have created more terrorists than it killed.?If so, this will be a Pyrrhic victory, indeed, for Israel.
Other losers from the 34-Day War may well be the USA and the United Nations.?Clearly, our unswerving support for Israel has hurt our credibility as objective arbiters of a cease fire and lasting peace in the Middle East. Our links to Israel also exacerbate our efforts in Iraq, where prevailing sentiments are demonstrably pro-Hezbollah and virulently anti-Israel.?
As for the U.N., this latest conflict just proves again that U.N. resolutions, however well-intentioned, are worthless if they can be ignored by those who are supposed to abide by their terms.?The U.N.?s lack of power and will to enforce its resolutions has reduced them to a debating society, ?full of sound and fury? but signifying impotence.
Thomas B. Vaughn is a professor at Motlow College and co-host of the radio show ?Viewpoints,? which airs on 91.3 FM, WCPI.