Exit polling has place in my heart

As some of you may already know if you?ve seen me languishing the hot sun, I?m again conducting the Sherrill Poll outside early voting, trying to give the candidates and our readers a glimpse of where the various races stand as we continue early voting.

The response has been very favorable the two days I?ve conducted the exit poll, with very few people declining my offer to make their choices known as part of the sample and to take home a brand new Southern Standard pen for their trouble. Folks seem to be really open this year with most voters not only filling out the secret ballot (which I do not look at by the way), but then making their choices proudly known to me, and the reason for their vote.

The discussions are probably the most fascinating part of polling. It lets me meet the voters without having the stake of asking for their vote while getting a picture of their thought processes in casting their ballot. Everyone has their own reason and own story as to why they will vote one way or another.

This will make the fourth poll I?ve conducted over the past eight years. While not inclined to seek public office, I?ve always been fascinated with the electoral process and what makes people vote the way they do. Some people?s connection to geekdom is ?Star Wars.? Mine is political prognostication and analysis.

Something I?ve found fascinating this year is the reasons I?ve been given as to how people are voting. Some people admit they are voting against a candidate, rather than voting for their opposition.

However, the most interesting thing I?m hearing is race-specific voting where voters are coming to the polls to vote in one, maybe two, races. Most of these folks are passionate about these limited number of races. Meanwhile, they enter the polls undecided on the other contested races.

You?d be surprised how many people had trouble remembering who they voted for in the races like county court clerk and trustee just moments after emerging from the polls. This tells me there are numerous votes to be had, especially in those two races. In the area of sheriff and county executive and DA to some extent, most people seem pretty locked in as to whom they are voting for.

As for the poll itself, we hope to publish the outcome Sunday, or as soon as we get an adequate sample of voters. I know some folks don?t like polls, but I?ve found they are very accurate in picking front-runners and even winners.

I?ve conducted two random polls and one exit poll in the past and I?m yet to miss. I?ve even accurately predicted the percentages in several races by polling. Now this isn?t saying there will be no margin for error or that a win in the Sherrill Poll guarantees victory. All the poll is saying is how a sample of early voters voted. And, as goes early voting, so goes regular balloting. This is especially large when you consider that half of all voters vote early.

Does publishing a poll before an election hurt candidates? I say no, although I?m sure those who trail in the polls will say differently. If your voters were so wishy-washy that a poll can tell them how to vote, they weren?t very reliable in the first place. Actually, I think voters are more apt to come out if they see their candidate is losing, so they can perhaps give him or her their support. And, this poll will give candidates an insight as to how they?re doing and what modifications they need to make as we get closer to May 2.

Duane Sherrill is a reporter for the Standard. He can be reached at 473-2191 or by e-mail at [email protected].