GOP should hope Roe upheld
The Supreme Court is highly unlikely to take South Dakota’s bait and overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion decision. And for that, Republicans should thank their lucky stars.
But South Dakota’s “direct frontal assault” on Roe — to use Gov. Michael Rounds’ (R) description — may well elevate abortion to the top of the nation’s political agenda for the 2008 presidential election, or even earlier if President Bush gets the opportunity to nominate another Supreme Court justice.
The issue could be especially problematic for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), currently the GOP favorite among moderates and the media. On CBS’ “The Early Show” on Jan. 25, McCain said, “I’ve never agreed with Roe v. Wade” and added that “it wouldn’t bother me any” if it were overturned.
At a minimum, South Dakota gives the pro-choice movement a graphic example of what life might be like in a large swath of America if Roe were ever overturned.
South Dakota has just one abortion clinic, in Sioux Falls, open only one day a week. No doctor from the state dares perform an abortion, so outsiders fly in, usually from Minnesota. Women have to travel up to 350 miles to get an abortion.
And on top of such obstacles, the state has now passed a law to ban the procedure entirely, including in cases of rape and incest, except to save a mother’s life. The law is likely to be challenged in court before it can take effect.
If Roe were overturned — wiping away 30-plus years of national legal protection for the procedure and unleashing epic battles at the state level — it could affect the GOP in much the same way as the Democratic Party’s embrace of civil rights in the 1960s, a move that caused the party to lose the South.
Or, as one pro-choice Republican House Member told me, “We’d be blown away in the suburbs, and you wouldn’t see another Republican president for 20 years.”
A pro-choice colleague of his added, “If you take away a right that people have taken for granted, they will rise to defend it. A sleeping giant would be aroused.”
Polls overwhelmingly indicate that Americans favor retention of Roe, even if they also support limitations on abortion.
A Gallup Poll in January found that Americans oppose overturning the decision by 66 percent to 25 percent. The poll was taken when now-Justice Samuel Alito’s Supreme Court nomination was before the Senate. By 56 percent to 34 percent, respondents said they’d favor his rejection if they became convinced he would vote to overturn Roe.
The same poll showed that only 38 percent of American adults favor making abortion laws stricter, while 20 percent want them made less strict, and 39 percent favor retaining current laws. Fifty-three percent told Gallup they consider themselves “pro-choice,” while 42 percent said they are “pro-life.”
The high court conceivably might revisit the Roe decision along with partial-birth abortion, but it is thought unlikely to do so because it doesn’t have to. Indeed, it’s not clear when a challenge to South Dakota’s new law will even get to the Supreme Court, or whether the court will even consider it when it does.
Support for Roe stood at 6-3 on the court before the departures of the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist and ex-Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. Now, it’s 5-2, with Roberts and Alito as question marks.
Both are conservatives, but both also told the Senate Judiciary Committee that they value precedent, which Roe definitely is after 33 years on the books. But at worst for abortion-rights supporters, the Roberts court is still 5-4 pro-Roe.
In past presidential elections, exit polls showed that abortion is a top-tier issue for 6 percent to 20 percent of voters. Republicans usually carry this group by margins of 60 percent to 40 percent.
Except for pro-choice former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, other GOP contenders have stances similar to McCain’s.
Politically, Republicans have to hope that Roberts and/or Alito end up embracing Roe, leaving the court 6-3 pro-Roe or even 7-2. Because if Roe is perceived to be under threat, the GOP is in trouble.
Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.