How the Democrats could lose
A year from now the nation’s 44th president will move into the Oval Office, and many signs point to a Democratic victory. Only one in three Americans approves of President Bush; three out of four say the country is headed in the wrong direction; one in four identifies with the GOP, the lowest rate in 24 years; in the early primaries, Democratic voters have far outnumbered Republicans.
This election, however, is far from over. The excitement generated in Democratic ranks contains the seeds of a very real problem. The party has produced two exceptional candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Each one has a deep and devoted following. Each one can taste victory. Each one believes that she or he embodies the “audacity of hope” and can make history.
But one of these candidates has to lose. One group of ardent partisans will be grievously disappointed. One critical element of the Democratic coalition — women or blacks — will miss their chance to turn “the impossible into reality.” And the bitter aftermath of that rejection could provide Republicans with their best, and perhaps their only, opportunity for victory.
Obviously, the losing Democratic candidate will endorse the winner. Obviously, few of his or her supporters will vote Republican in protest. But intensity matters in politics. How deep are the wounds? The whole point of a compressed primary schedule was to avoid exactly what’s happening to the Democrats: a long and bruising battle that raises tempers, reduces treasuries and hands the enemy plenty of ammunition.
The conflict between Clinton and Obama is aggravated by the fact that they don’t really disagree about issues. Sure, Clinton claims that her healthcare plan covers more people; Obama argues he was quicker to oppose the Iraq war. But these are marginal distinctions.
The primary campaign has done something else that has to worry Democrats: It has exposed the weaknesses of their leading candidates. Clinton wins women but loses men; she appeals to voters with less education and lower paychecks but not to the elites; Latinos like her but blacks don’t. She has too much baggage and not enough warmth, and about 45 percent of all voters consistently tell pollsters they can’t stand her.
Obama’s profile is almost the opposite. They love him in faculty clubs but not factories; students turn on but seniors turn off.
And both are running against history. Only two sitting senators have ever been elected president; the last northerner to win was John F. Kennedy 48 years ago; the last chief executive from New York was Franklin Roosevelt, the last from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln.
The final factor Democrats have to worry about is John McCain. Yes, he’s also an incumbent senator, an elderly defender of an unpopular war with an incendiary temper and a lot of enemies. But he’s from the Southwest (eight of the last 11 elections have been won by Texans or Californians) and the only Republican with a demonstrated appeal to moderates and independents. In national polls, he narrowly edges both leading Democrats.
The odds still indicate that either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will take the oath as the 44th president. But if the Democrats are stupid enough to keep lacerating each other, and the Republicans are shrewd enough to pick McCain, the outcome is by no means assured.
Steve and Cokie Roberts can be contacted by e-mail at [email protected].