Huckabee and Obama win big
The final results of the 2008 Iowa caucuses brought good news to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and freshman Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.??The news ranged from bad to worse for their respective opponents.
In the Republican caucuses, Huckabee pulled off a stunning victory, garnering about 34 percent of the total votes, to just 25 percent for his nearest competitor, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson tied for third place at 13 percent each.
In the Democratic caucuses, Obama won a convincing victory as well. He gained 38 percent of the total votes, to former North Carolina Sen. and 2004 Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards’ 29 percent, and former first lady and current New York Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 28 percent.
The story behind the statistics in the Iowa caucuses is even more revealing.??For starters, voter turnout was impressive. ??Over 200,000 Democrats braved the cold weather to publicly proclaim their preferences. About 120,000 Republicans also made their votes count in straw polls across the state.
Huckabee’s remarkable, come-from-behind victory was due largely to his overwhelming support from Iowa’s evangelical voters.??According to various post-caucus reports, he received some 46 percent of their votes.??However, among non-evangelical voters, he got just 14 percent.??This latter statistic could turn out to be bad news for him down the pike, as early as the New Hampshire primaries this Tuesday.
As for Romney, his loss to Huckabee proves, at least for now, that money doesn’t always produce political victory.??After all, Romney spent at least $7 million on his race in Iowa, for which he received about 30,000 votes.
Clearly, the big Republican loser in Iowa last week was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who managed to finish dead last.??By his own admission, he took a ‘calculated risk’ in bypassing the Iowa caucuses to concentrate on what he thinks are more fertile fields for ultimate victory.?? Whether that strategy was sound or flawed remains to be seen.
Obama’s historic victory dramatically demonstrated his ability to deliver a stirring, persuasive message of change, and to appeal to first-time caucus-goers to vote for him.??That he was able to do so in a mostly white, largely rural, moderate to conservative state is even more remarkable.
As for Clinton, her third-place finish, even behind Edwards, has to hurt deeply. Apparently, she believed more in her campaign rhetoric than the voters did. ??Though boasting that only she had the necessary experience to bring about substantive change in foreign and domestic policy, she was roundly rejected by over 70 percent of Democratic voters ‘??many of them women, who went for Obama.??This dismal showing raises anew her ‘high negatives,’ which have haunted her in the past, and could well derail her in the future.
With icy Iowa behind them, winners and losers from both parties are now slogging through snowy New Hampshire, hoping to extend their victories or reverse their losses come Tuesday and beyond.??Stay tuned for more as the marathon continues on the road to Super Tuesday: Feb. 5, 2008.
Retired Army Col. Thomas B. Vaughn can be reached at [email protected].