Pedal to the Metal – Nextel Cup chase finally under way
Today marks the start of the Chase for the Championship. There are 12 drivers involved in the Chase, but 43 drivers will take the field each and every race. Roger Penske plans to enter Sam Hornish Jr. in the five COT races left on the schedule. He has never even been in a Cup car. How that might affect the race is anybody’s guess. Let’s hope he fails to qualify.
I’ll try to break down the Chase and give my predictions.
The following 12 drivers and the make of their cars are as follows:
Jimmy Johnson – Chevrolet
Jeff Gordon – Chevrolet
Tony Stewart – Chevrolet
Carl Edwards – Ford
Kurt Busch – Dodge
Denny Hamlin – Chevrolet
Truex Jr. – Chevrolet
Matt Kenseth – Ford
Kyle Busch – Chevrolet
Jeff Burton – Chevrolet
Kevin Harvick – Chevrolet
Clint Bowyer – Chevrolet
There are nine Chevrolets in the Chase. This is a first for NASCAR. With ten races left in the season, Chevrolet has already won the manufactures championship.
My first bold prediction: A Chevy driver will win the Chase!
Owners fielding teams are: Hendrick (3) – Johnson, Gordon and Kyle Busch ; Childress (3) – Burton, Harvick and Bowyer, Gibbs (2) – Stewart and Hamlin; Roush (2) – Edwards and Kenseth; Penske (1) – Kurt Busch; and DEI (1) – Truex Jr.
My next prediction (not as bold): Hendrick Racing will win the Championship, although many think Stewart will win.
So that leaves me with three drivers to choose from. Johnson has won the most races this year with six and Gordon has the next most with four. Kyle Busch has one win during the first 26 races. While winning races during the first 26 races was instrumental in determining the line-up for the Chase, consistency is the key for winning the Championship. One DNF (did not finish) can ruin any chances for a driver, although not impossible to overcome.
Five of the final 10 races will use the COT. Four of these five have been run at the same tracks earlier in the year. The other is at Talladega where the COT will be used for the first time in a restrictor plate race. This will be new to all drivers. Jeff Gordon has an average finish of 3.5 at the four tracks already raced on. Johnson has averaged 6.25 and Kyle Busch has an average of 9.75. Advantage Gordon.
The five remaining tracks are all 1.5 mile tracks, the so called cookie cutter tracks. Of the three Hendrick drivers, Johnson has the best average finish at these tracks, followed by Gordon with Busch a distant third. Advantage Johnson.
My final prediction for the top three is: 1. Gordon, 2. Stewart and 3. Johnson, with Hamlin as my dark horse.
As I have talked about during the year, NASCAR has penalized many teams over the course of the season. These penalties have been a combination of fines, suspensions and points. Other than maybe Michael Waltrip, I don’t see how any of these penalties have hurt the teams. The most severe penalties were given to Johnson and Gordon, and they finished first and second respectively. Half the drivers in the Chase have been penalized. Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a 100- point penalty but finished over 100 points out of the chase. His problem was 6 DNF’s. Maybe NASCAR will have to look at some other form of penalty to make them effective. The moneys these teams have offset monetary penalties, suspending crew chief don’t seem to work, and point deductions have not hut anyone. Maybe suspending drivers for a race or two might help.