Early front-runners emerge from survey
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Meanwhile, the races for sheriff, county clerk and register of deeds appear to be runaways, with the incumbents showing commanding early leads.
The projections come as part of The Sherrill Poll, a survey recently conducted by the Southern Standard to gauge voter preferences.
The poll targeted 200 registered Warren County voters who said they were likely to cast ballots in the upcoming elections. There are just over 20,000 registered voters in Warren County, with 18,000 of them listed as active, meaning they have voted within the past five years.
Normally, only about half of the active voters take part in general elections. The numbers are much lower in other elections such as primaries and special elections.
During the November election of 2000, which was a presidential election, over 50 percent of registered voters cast ballots. Persons over 65 years of age accounted for almost half the total vote. In that same election, 70 percent of the ballots were cast by men.
The recent poll listed all of the candidates who have qualified for the ballot in the local offices. The candidates were listed in no particular order and their party affiliation was not listed on the survey. The incumbent was also not denoted. In the race for judge, the eight probable candidates for the seat were listed since qualifying deadline does not fall until May 16.
Election Administrator Donna Yates said while polls are interesting, they may or may not be a good barometer of voter sentiment.
“I kind of take a dim view of polls,” Yates said. “It really boils down to who you talk to as to how they will turn out.”
The poll took eight different targeted samples, taking into account age, sex and income levels to get a broad cross-section of Warren County voters. The poll was personally issued and its results collected by a pollster to prevent ballot stuffing. The poll was conducted at public locations on an unannounced basis.
The following is a breakdown of the poll’s reflection:
County Executive
Incumbent first-term County Executive Carol Hamblen carried the poll by a margin of 56 percent to 42 percent over her closest competitor, Democratic nominee Kenneth Rogers. Independent candidate Bob Warren received 2 percent of the vote.
Hamblen’s lead in the poll comes after she carried seven of eight separate samples taken, winning most by narrow margins. However, most notable was Rogers’ large margin with voters over 65, which is the age group which most consistently votes. Rogers won 3-to-1 amongst seniors. The senior sample was the only sample carried by Rogers, who lost to Hamblen in the 1998 election by 20 votes.
While not included in the overall sample, Hamblen won large in a poll taken of Rotary Club of McMinnville members, by a vote of 51-1. However, the sample was not figured in to the total due to the fact Hamblen is a member of the club.
Circuit Judge
A pair of political newcomers dominated the poll in the circuit judge race to replace retiring Judge Charles Haston.
Stanley won all eight samples taken with Newman finishing second in all eight samples. In total, Stanley finished with 37 percent with Newman second with 20 percent. Veteran attorney Bernard K. Smith, who was a candidate for judge in 1998, finished third with 11 percent just ahead of Keith Smartt, who was also a 1998 candidate for judge, with 10 percent. Clerk and Master Richard McGregor, Peg Stewart and former district attorney Bill Locke each had 6 percent. Al Johnson of Spencer, who is still questionable for the race, received no votes, but there were no Van Buren samples taken.
It should be noted all the samples in the poll were taken during the month of April, just as the campaigns were getting started due to Haston’s recent retirement announcement. The election for judge will be held Aug. 1.
In a poll of Rotary Club of McMinnville, which was not included in the overall sample, Stanley defeated Newman by three votes. Both are members of the club and once again finished first and second.
Trustee
Long-time incumbent Trustee Joy Slatton was ahead in the poll taking 48 percent of the ballots. She was closely followed by Democratic opponent Darlene Bryant who had 39 percent. Democratic hopeful Don Alexander finished a distant third with 9 percent. Independent candidate, Emily Panter, who will face the winner of the three-way Democratic race, finished with 6 percent.
Slatton carried five of eight samples, including the senior citizen sample. Bryant had her best numbers amongst younger voters, especially female voters. Alexander posted his best finish amongst seniors where he finished a close third just behind Bryant.
In the Trustee race, the poll took into account all four candidates, including the independent Panter. The inclusion of all four candidates could distort the poll since only one candidate will move on to the general election following the May 7 primary.
Register of Deeds
First-term incumbent Terry Smith enjoyed a healthy lead in the poll, taking 70 percent of the vote. The next closest competitor, Randy England, finished with 24 percent. He is challenging Smith in the Democratic Primary with the winner advancing to meet independent Susan Curtis in the general election. England also sought the office in a large field in 1998.
Smith won all eight samples by comfortable margins. Like the Trustee’s race, all three candidates were included in the poll, even though only one Democrat will advance. Curtis received 6 percent of the vote.
Sheriff
Sheriff Jackie Matheny leads by a huge margin, taking 91 percent of the vote and carrying all eight samples. His independent opponents, long-time deputy Doc Smith and former multi-term sheriff Everett Pearsall each had 4 percent.
While the poll shows Matheny with 91 percent of the vote, it should be noted no sheriff’s candidate, who has faced opposition, has received over 80 percent of the vote in modern Warren County history.
County Clerk
Incumbent David Smartt, like Matheny, had 91 percent of the vote, leading political newcomer Jeff McGee who had 9 percent. Smartt won all eight samples. The two will square off in the May 7 primary. There are no independent candidates so the primary winner will win the race.
Sherrill Poll Results
County Executive
Carol Hamblen: 56%
Kenneth Rogers: 42%
Bob Warren: 2%
Circuit Court Judge
Bart Stanley: 37%
Robert Newman: 20%
Bernard Smith: 11%
Keith Smartt: 10%
Bill Locke: 6%
Richard McGregor: 6%
Peg Stewart: 6%