Objective clear, reaching it complex

‘Presidential politics, like football ‘ is simple in objective but complex in execution. The objective is 270 electoral votes.’ That quotation from George Will puts into sharp focus just how complex getting to that objective in 2008 may be ‘ for John McCain and for Barack Obama.
For McCain, the challenge will be how to replicate what President Bush accomplished in 2004, when he won 31 states and 286 Electoral College votes. To do so, he will have to hold the Republican base, no small task, given his maverick record, and reach out to disaffected Democrats and independents, whose votes he also needs to win.
Several factors suggest the magnitude of McCain’s challenge. First, the Grand Old Party does not seem nearly as grand as it did in the glory days of Ronald Reagan.
Instead, it is reeling from public perceptions of arrogance and ineptitude regarding issues and policies, foreign and domestic.
Second, Mr. McCain, despite his record as a maverick, remains vulnerable to the Democratic mantra that a vote for him is a vote for a third George Bush term. In fact, he has differed with President Bush, most notably on the war in Iraq. He was an early and vocal critic of the way the war was being waged, and among the first to call for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation.
Sen. McCain has also been a staunch supporter of the surge strategy in Iraq, as executed by General Petraeus. That strategy appears, to all but the most cynical, to be achieving its intent. Violence is way down in Iraq and so are the casualties.
Even Iraq’s national government is finally showing some hopeful signs of achieving a degree of unity and ability to govern not seen before.
That said, the situation in Iraq remains fragile, and American patience is wearing thin. Public support for the war has declined deeply, despite demonstrable progress on the military and political fronts.
For Barack Obama, the challenge will be to improve on John Kerry’s 2004 record of winning 19 states and the District of Columbia, which netted him 251 Electoral College votes. To do so, he will have to unite the Democrats in order to hold those states, and then reach out to disaffected Republicans and independents to reach the objective of 270 electoral votes.
Despite Sen. Obama’s charisma and oratorical skills, he is seen by many as way too na??ve and inexperienced, especially in national security and foreign policy issues, compared to Mr. McCain. He is also seen by many as way too liberal.
Whether he can overcome these perceptions remains to be seen.
So, the objective of 270 electoral votes is crystal clear, but the means for achieving it are murky, for both candidates. Much has been made of age, gender, ethnicity, race, and religion in presidential politics-and rightly so. All matter, to some extent, in how we vote, no matter how much we may deny it.
Finally, the choice of a vice presidential running mate may become pivotal in the calculus of getting to the objective of 270 electoral votes in 2008. More on that later.
Retired Army Col. Thomas B. Vaughn can be reached at tbvbwmi@blomand.net.