Is cigarette tax hike up in smoke?

Now that Gov. Phil Bredesen?s $27.5 billion budget proposal?is public knowledge, it?s time for politicians, interest groups, political pundits and others to weigh in on its relative merits.

As the late, great Sen. Everett Dirksen used to say, ?A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you?re talking about real money.??He was referring to the federal budget, but the same can be said of Gov. Bredesen?s budget proposal.

I suspect most Tennesseans, including me, will find such a staggering sum of $27.5 billion tough to fathom.?For example, it?s hard for most of us to know, and for many of us to even care, where all that money will go.?So, we leave the math and the politics of it all to others-unless we are directly affected by the outcome.

The governor?s budget proposal is just the opening salvo, not the final shot. The General Assembly will exercise its constitutional role by scrutinizing the details. Most of this work will be done in the relevant committees and subcommittees of the House and Senate.?Members of both houses can expect more help than they need from powerful interest groups who have a ?dog in the fight? and a stake in the outcome of the final budget.

In my view, the most controversial issue may be Gov. Bredesen?s proposal to triple the state?s tax on cigarettes, from 20 cents to 60 cents per pack.?Supporters of the cigarette tax hike assert it will deter potential smokers, especially teenagers, and cause current smokers to quit smoking or at least cut down on their habit.?Opponents, predictably, cite the potential burdens that will fall unfairly on smokers, tobacco farmers and businesses that benefit from cigarette sales and use.

As a non-cigarette smoker, I can see the merits of both cases, for and against the cigarette hike. However, I think we need to be wary of inflated claims on either side.?Also, we need to consider the sources of these claims in order to assess their true credibility.

I hope Gov. Bredesen and our legislators will consider the potential risks of tripling the cigarette tax, by which I mean unintended consequences.? For example, such a drastic hike could lead to smokers heading for one of the eight states that border Tennessee to buy their cigarettes in bulk and do their other shopping as well.

Instead of increasing cigarette tax revenues, this could cause them to shrink.

Another potential risk posed by the cigarette tax hike could be a burgeoning black market for cigarettes bought in, say, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri or Virginia, and sold in Tennessee.?This, too, could shrink cigarette tax revenues in Tennessee.

As our legislators delve into the details of the proposed cigarette tax hike, the recent history of such measures suggests heated discussion and debate, followed by some acceptable compromise.?I predict that compromise will be closer to a 20-cent hike than a 40-cent one.

Thomas B. Vaughn is an instructor at Motlow College and co-host of ?Viewpoints,? a radio show that airs on WCPI 91.3 FM.