Armchair Quarterback – So who will win today?s big game?
The Bears will shock the world today, upsetting Peyton Manning and the Colts, with the oft-criticized Rex Grossman named MVP after a Peyton-like performance.
Wait, no. Peyton Manning will avoid choking in the big game, take home the MVP after hitting on five TD passes thereby prompting the NFL to go ahead and inscribe his name on a bust of his likeness at the Hall of Fame in Canton while the SEC record books are adjusted, given the Gator players on the Bear roster, to reflect he beat Florida all four years he was at Knoxville.
Hey, this year is tough to predict, just look at my record on the pigskin panel here. Embarrassing. Like I said last week, conventional wisdom would have me pick the Colts in a no-brainer today but this has been an unconventional several months, just ask the Buckeyes who were supposed to swamp the aforementioned Florida Gators just a few weeks ago.
With that said, there are four keys to victory I believe, with the team which achieves most of these keys to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy around 9 p.m. Sunday.
The first key is the running game. This is especially true for the Bears. If the Colts stuff the run bad things will happen for two reasons. First, Rex Grossman, who has been up and down, will be forced to drop back and pass against the Colts tough pass rush. And, second, and most important, it will give Peyton more chances if the Bears cannot control the clock. Given enough chances, like him or hate him, Peyton will beat you.
Of course, it?s not just the Bears who need ball control. The Colts, as a one-dimensional offense, will not get it done. The Bears are too good of a defense to let Peyton pass all over the field if there is no threat of a run. If you will recall, when the Colts beat the Ravens 15-6, a very similar defense-based team as the Bears, they did it with the run, using not Joseph Addai, but Dominic Rhodes to pound the ball and control the clock as the Ravens were able to control the Colt passing game.
The second key is turnovers. The Bears are in the Super Bowl because they forced the Saints into numerous turnovers, three in the first half alone. If the Colts are forced to pass late, the Bears are the type of team which are good at picks brought by pressure on the quarterback. Visa versa, Grossman has thrown picks by the pound this year when forced to pass.
The third key is special teams play. The Bear special teams tied a record this year for returns for touchdowns meaning there is no relaxing for the Colts during punt and kickoff coverage. On the other hand, the Colts possess the most prolific clutch kicker of all time in Adam Vinatieri, a person who has been the deciding factor in all three Patriot Super Bowl wins.
The last key is red zone conversions. While defenses will be huge in this game, I still think we?re looking at a 27-24 finish, seeing it appears to be a reappearing score over the playoffs. Therefore, ending an eight-minute drive with a field goal will not be enough. The team that wins will have to take some chances when they are in the shadow of the goal posts, and not settle for the three.
With all this said, I say the trend continues and Vinatieri hits the game-winning kick to lift the Colts to victory and get one big monkey off Peyton?s back.