Robservations: ‘Favorite’ status not a guarantee
The Pioneers find themselves in an unfamiliar position tonight, when DeKalb County comes calling for the second high school game of the WCHS season.
Not only is Warren County undefeated, it is also — are you ready for this? — the favorite.
The numbers don’t lie, Pioneer fans.
Checking the Sonny Moore Power Ratings, you’ll find that while the Pioneers are still at the bottom of the Class 5A ladder, they’re boasting a much more respectable number. The men in red, as of this week’s update, have a rating of 87.68, up from their 79.85 mark heading into the season.
Down in Class 3A, the Tigers find themselves near the bottom of the pack, as well. With only three schools in the class ranked underneath them, DeKalb has a rating of 82.10.
Give Warren County its three points for the home-field advantage, subtract their 90.68 from DeKalb’s number, and you’ll find the homefield squad is an 8.5-point favorite to take the win tonight.
So put this one in the books, right?
No, not yet.
Sure, tonight looks good for the Pioneers on paper, but high school football games aren’t played on paper, they’re played on grass. And while confidence is assuredly high in Pioneer camp, if that confidence transforms into cockiness, WCHS could be in trouble.
Check out last week for an example of an over-confident squad. If you’re one of those people who likes to surf the information superhighway (if they still call it that), you know there was no shortage of Bradley Central backers online predicting not only a Bear victory, but a big Bear victory.
They were touting scores like 28-6, 31-7, and even 40-0 when asked for their predictions for the outcome at Nunley Stadium.
In fact, two days before the game, they switched gears entirely. They had the Warren County in the bag, or so their online comments would have you believe, so they set their sights on this week’s foes from Cleveland.
“Will the Warren County game give the Bears the momentum they need going into the Cleveland game?” asked one poster.
Later on Friday night, another poster brought Bears fans back down to earth with one simple sentence.
“So much for all that momentum going into the Cleveland game.”
That’s a shame for the Bradley boys, (poor, poor pitiful Bradley) but at the same time it’s a lesson every team — from No. 1 Riverdale to No. 322 Clarksville Academy — can learn: No one is above an upset.
Be as confident as you can be, but don’t take things too far. Prepare to win, expect to win, but never assume you’re going to win.
Because even when you’re the favorite, anything can happen.
Again, just ask the Bradley Central Bears. Because last week, they were man-handled by a 16-point underdog.
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The Pioneer boosters will be holding a cookout following tonight’s game against DeKalb, with all parents of varsity and freshman players invited.