Bush and Kerry tied again
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That’s the evidence emerging from daily tracks by the Rasmussen poll. And focus groups in 17 battleground states conducted by Democratic consultant Bob Beckel also suggest that Bush failed to decisively convert undecided voters.
Polling 1,000 voters a night, Rasmussen found that Bush went into the Republican convention with a one-point lead, 47 percent to 46 percent, and came out Sept. 4 with a lead of 4.4 points, 49.1 percent to 44.7 percent.
By Sept. 7, however, the race had slipped back to 47-47. That’s a more accurate measure of the race than the average of four other current polls that give Bush a six-point lead.
Conducting its polls state by state, Rasmussen reported that Bush leads in electoral votes by 213 to 175, but lacks an edge in enough of the most hotly contested states to reach the 270 threshold for election. An average of state polls by Realclearpolitics.com gives Bush a lead of 269 to 228.
Beckel, who was Walter Mondale’s campaign manager in 1984, conducted his focus groups in partnership with an unnamed Republican during both conventions. The duo found that neither candidate made a final sale.
Beckel is convinced the undecided pool is larger than the 4 percent or 5 percent usually assumed for this polarized election. To Beckel, “persuadeables” may actually account for up to 15 percent of the electorate.
While acknowledging he’s a partisan Democrat, Beckel said he thinks “Bush is in a lot more trouble than people think he is.” The reason: Battleground-state voters are more concerned about the economy, health care and stem cells than about terrorism and Iraq.
Bush did not impress focus-group participants during the first half of his acceptance speech, which covered domestic issues. However, he “won an A-plus” during the second half, dealing with foreign policy.
Asked to grade the total speech, participants gave Bush a “B-plus,” about the same grade Kerry earned for his speech. Separate groups watched each convention.
Beckel said that “the best thing that happened for Bush at his convention” was the speech by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., that made “a connection between the Iraq war and terrorism in an understandable way.”
He added that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif., received kudos for taking on Kerry.
“But they didn’t like (former New York Mayor Rudy) Giuliani,” he said. And the speech by Sen. Zell Miller, D-Ga., “was a disaster. People said Miller’s speech ‘represents the worst in politics.'”
Also, Beckel said, voters do not want to hear about Vietnam. “They are convinced that Kerry was a hero and that the Swift Boat veterans are under instructions from the White House. But they don’t care about Vietnam.”
Beckel added, “If there was one thing that was striking, it’s how many people know and care about the stem-cell issue. It was the most remarked-upon single thing in (first lady) Laura Bush’s speech. They were offended that someone forced her to say that Bush was the first president to fund stem cell research, even if it’s technically true.
“Sixty of the 87 people were connected somehow to a disease that might be cured with stem cells, either as caregivers or as having the disease, and they knew the difference between the number of lines Bush claimed were available for research, 69, and the actual number, 17.”
The bottom line of both the Rasmussen polling and of Beckel’s focus groups is that Democrats should stop fretting about Bush’s post-convention lead. It doesn’t exist.
Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.