Lessons learned from Iowa
The results of the Iowa caucuses were stunning, but hardly conclusive. Howard Dean could still win, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980 after losing the caucuses to George Bush the Elder. John Kerry and John Edwards could still wind up as footnotes like Gary Hart and Paul Tsongas, who won early primaries and then faded.
But now that real Americans have cast real votes, a number of lessons are becoming clear about the politics of 2004, and the remaining Democrats ignore them at their peril.
UNIONS DON’T HELP: Rep. Richard Gephardt counted heavily on the old industrial unions, and they failed him badly. Organized labor represents a shrinking share of the electorate, and union leaders have a diminishing ability to deliver their own members. Barely one in five caucus goers from union households backed Gephardt.
TRADE DOESN’T WORK: The big union issue, restricting trade to preserve jobs, fell flat, and that’s good news for the national party. Protectionism is bad policy and bad politics. Democrats shouldn’t reverse their long tradition of free trade to appease unions that have lost their clout.
ENDORSEMENTS DON’T HELP MUCH, EITHER: Dean’s campaign actually lost altitude as he loaded up on endorsements from the likes of Al Gore and Bill Bradley. One explanation: Dean reveled in attacking Washington insiders, then seemed to embrace them, muddling his own message. One endorsement that did matter: The Des Moines Register, whose support for John Edwards gave him a stamp of legitimacy.
AVOID THE OUTSIDERS: Dean organizers swarming into the state wore bright orange hats to set them apart. The tactic backfired, marking the Deaniacs as interlopers.
AUTHENTICITY MATTERS: If you change your stripes — or your wardrobe — voters will see through you immediately. Al Gore’s sartorial indecision became a metaphor for his lack of conviction, and so did Howard Dean’s late switch from suits to sweaters. Borrowing the sweaters from an aide only reinforced his awkwardness. Second-hand clothes, like second-hand opinions, don’t wear well.
CONSISTENCY MATTERS, TOO: Dean insisted his wife Judy would not campaign for him because she was needed by her son and her patients back in Vermont. Then, as his effort sputtered, he flew her in for a brief and uncomfortable turn before the TV cameras. Not a good move for a candidate who campaigns on candor and consistency.
OPTIMISM SELLS: Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both understood that Americans vote on the future instead of the past, and for optimism rather than gloom. That’s why Edwards’ emphasis on “the politics of hope” played well in Iowa. He presented a sharp contrast to the negative attacks by Dean and Gephardt, who only managed to shred each other. Dean then delivered an overwrought speech on caucus night that made many viewers — including us — cringe with embarrassment.
LOVIN’ THAT UNIFORM: Bill Clinton, who avoided the draft, defeated two genuine war heroes, George Bush and Bob Dole. But 9/11 restored the importance of military experience. Kerry’s best campaign ads featured shots of him in uniform, and fellow Vietnam veterans flocked to his side. But former Gen. Wesley Clark has even more old medals and uniforms than Kerry, so voters in New Hampshire and beyond who want a combat veteran heading the ticket will have two choices, not one.
Iowa didn’t decide the Democratic nomination. But the lessons of the Hawkeye State will help determine how that race plays out in the weeks ahead.
(Cokie and Steven Roberts are syndicated columnists.)