Economics preoccupy Bush
President Bush has a three-part reply to Americans’ increasing economic anxiety, but polls indicate it’s not enough to stop a voter drift toward the Democrats.
Bush’s message, delivered in various forums over the past week, is: “I care”; “I inherited this”; and “Things will get better if Congress supports my economic program.”
Las week at the Iowa State Fair, Bush told farmers: “I understand … that this economy of ours is challenged. Any time somebody who wants to work and can’t find a job, that says to me we’ve got a problem.”
He also said, “When I came into office, we were in a recession. We had three quarters of negative growth. Then the enemy hit us. And then a scandal that had been brewing all of a sudden comes up to the surface.”
Bush also cited evidence that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are strong — inflation and interest rates low, incomes rising, etc. — and declared he was “optimistic” about the future.
“I particularly believe that if Congress does the right thing that we can make substantial progress,” he said.
He challenged Congress to make his tax cuts permanent, pass a terrorism insurance bill and exercise fiscal responsibility in appropriations.
Bush’s campaigning has to be seen in the context of falling consumer confidence undoubtedly brought on by volatility in the stock market and scary 401(k) reports.
The latest Gallup poll showed that only 32 percent of U.S. adults believe that economic conditions are getting better, down from 42 percent in late-July and 47 percent in mid-June. Fifty-five percent say the economy is getting worse.
Economic gloom hasn’t severely damaged Bush’s overall approval ratings, but a gradual slide continues — now at the rate of 5 points per month.
Gallup showed Bush’s approval at 76 percent in late-June, 71 percent in late-July and 68 percent last week. The early-August Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showed Bush at 69 percent.
The Fox poll showed that Republicans maintain a slight edge on the generic Congressional ballot, 39 percent to 36 percent, but that preference on handling the economy has shifted toward the Democrats, 43 percent to 36 percent.
Fox also found that Democrats have regained their advantage on education, 44 percent to 35 percent. On taxes, the GOP has lost its advantage and the two parties are tied.
Bush obviously is doing all he can not to repeat his father’s errors of seeming unconcerned about economic woes, failing to communicate to voters the positive turn in the economy and reneging on his “no new taxes” pledge.
Bush’s 2001 tax cuts were so large, however, that he has lost bipartisan support for any new cuts to deal with the current weakening of the economy. Growth was 5 percent in the first quarter of this year but only 1.1 percent in the second.
Bush is arguing to have his tax cuts made permanent beyond their current cutoff date of 2010, but that will cost an estimated $541 billion during the 10 years from 2003 to 2012.
Despite such huge proposed revenue losses, Bush decided last week to take a stand against spending a mere $5.1 billion in homeland security projects pushed on him by Congress on an all-or-nothing basis.
Still, Bush’s status as an advocate of “fiscal responsibility” is tarnished by his tax cuts, his signing of an extravagantly expensive election-year farm bill and his reluctance (so far) to veto any appropriations bills.
Bush’s dedication to fiscal restraint led him last week to deny emergency aid to drought-stricken South Dakota, a move that could cost him an opportunity to regain GOP control of the Senate.
Whether the House stays Republican or switches Democratic may well depend on the stock market and unemployment rates. Watching them is suspenseful.
(Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.)