Tie-breakers in the NFL a complex mess

Okay, time to expose the voodoo that the NFL uses for tie-breaking when it comes to the playoffs.

The scenarios are endless today as there are still a load of teams, including the Titans, who have a chance to make the playoffs on the very last day of the regular season. Given this mass of teams near the top of the rankings, the NFL devised a new tie-breaking procedure back in 2002, a procedure most people can?t make heads nor tails of given the variables.

For instance, for Tennessee to make it to the playoffs, they will first have to beat the Pats today, then Cincy must lose, the Chiefs must win and the Broncos must lose. For those wondering, the chances of all four of these things happening is remote. However, coming back in the fourth quarter from a 21-0 deficit against the Giants was also remote, so stay tuned today.

What we?re looking at with the Titans is the potential of a large logjam of teams with the same record. So, with that in mind, here?s the tie-breaker for ties involving three or more teams. And yes, there are different rules concerning tie-breakers within a division and tie-breakers within a conference as well as tie-breakers for wildcard spots.

First off, to determine a wildcard tie of three teams or more you determine if a team has won head-to-head against all the teams in the tie-breaker. If they have, your tie is broken. However, if it is still a tie it goes to conference record. If we are still tied then you go down to common opponents. After that, we get into voodoo as there is a strength of victories formula and then a strength of overall schedule formula. If that isn?t bad enough, we next go to best ranking of points scored and points allowed within a conference before next going to best ranking of points scored and points allowed within all games. Then, if that isn?t enough you get down to most net points in conference followed by most net points in overall games followed by most net touchdowns in all games. And, finally, if all the aforementioned 11 things don?t work then they go to the old-fashioned coin toss.

Yes, I don?t understand it either, I?m merely trying to translate it into common English which is near impossible. In the end, I suppose they?ll tell us who made the playoffs sometime late tomorrow afternoon, saving us all the math.

Now, before you think it?s just this complicated for large ties within a conference, let me point out the potential tie-breakers for a divisional tie between just two teams also goes 11 deep. Perhaps this is the reason you have to get mathematical experts to translate the scenarios when it comes to the final week of the regular season and you have almost half the teams in the league still in contention for the playoffs.

With this said, I?m still unsure why the Jags own the advantage over the Titans since the Titans have a better divisional record and the same conference record and are tied on head-to-head. But then, I was never good at math so all I know is that I?ll be rooting hard for the Chiefs today.

Of course, the parity given to us by the salary cap leads to the need for such complex tie-breaking procedures since the aim of the cap is to make everyone 8-8. Hey, it?s about to work in the NFC where you haveteams like the Packers still in the race and a barrel of potential 8-8 teams poised to make the postseason. While this may be fun to watch, I suspect this could mean a one-sided beating when the top AFC team matches up against the NFC?s sacrificial lamb.