It?s hard to tell who is winning

Who?s winning? Who?s losing? I haven?t the slightest.

Since we only get big local elections around here every four years, we have to squeeze every bit of political intrigue out of what boils down to less than a year of active campaigning. Along with this electioneering comes widespread speculation as to who is ahead and who is behind.

Sure, come late July, when the Sherrill Poll comes out, we will have a pretty clear picture, maybe, of who the front runners are. But, for now, we only have speculation, and speculation can make for very inaccurate conclusions since speculation is fed by who you talk to.

Speculation is why a candidate may think he or she is doing well in a campaign only to find out they?re running dead last and a mile behind the leaders. The reason for this is that we speculate based on what limited input we are given and things we see without getting a good look at the big picture. And, input is generally received from people who run in the same circles as we do. Rarely do we casually get out and see what the other guy thinks. This leaves us with a bit of tunnel vision. Add this to the illusion created by campaign signs and you?ve got speculation gone wild. Last time I checked the voter rolls, there were no signs registered to vote.

How do I know this? Well, because I?m the worst political speculator out there. In the last election in May, I missed four out of five guesses as to who would win the five primaries up for grabs. I made these guesses sometime in March, prior to doing any polling so these were off-the-cuff speculations based on what I thought was conventional wisdom. I?m a great pollster but a horrible guesser.

Let?s see, I correctly picked Jackie Matheny over Kenny Taylor in the sheriff?s race, and that was where my correct picks ended. The reason I picked Matheny was because of his strength in the past and the fact he hasn?t messed up, therefore, I thought his political base would be secure.

I missed my guess on taking Kenneth Rogers over John Pelham for county executive. In basing my initial guess, I recalled Rogers had won election four years ago by a huge margin. Early on, I thought, despite the economic problems here, that he may be able to hold on to his political base. I was obviously very wrong seeing Pelham won with 57 percent.

I also missed the district attorney?s race. Sure, I thought it?d be close all the way, which it was, but I guessed, wrongly, that Robert Newman would win. My logic was that he had long-term name recognition for being in practice so long and that Lisa Z. wouldn?t have time to overcome it. Once again, wrong.

I had Donna Pelham penciled in for trustee because she had gotten out early and really beat the bushes when it came to campaigning. However, in doing so, I failed to consider the grass roots support Darlene Bryant would be bringing after falling short in the two prior elections. The same miscalculation was made in guessing Brent Brock over Randy England seeing Randy, like Darlene, had come up short the past two times. While not winning before, he had made a solid political base to build on this election.

What it boiled down to, in my inaccurate speculation, was looking at the wrong things when it came to gauging the public?s feelings.

With that said, if you ask me who is going to win the races this August, you may just want me to pick the other candidate since I?m guessing about 20 percent right.

Duane Sherrill is a reporter for the Standard. He can be reached at 473-2191 or by e-mail at [email protected].