Edwards’ route to nomination filled with obstacles
CLEVELAND (AP) — John Edwards’ road to the Democratic presidential nomination runs through Ohio, Georgia and Minnesota on Tuesday, then crests with a Southern showdown a week later and a March 16 clash in Illinois, his advisers say.
Many Democrats believe the route is strewn with obstacles and dead ends at nearly every turn. The freshman senator from North Carolina must quickly find a way to topple hard-charging John Kerry, who has won 18 of 20 elections to dominate the primary season.
The Massachusetts senator has an almost insurmountable lead in delegates, the support of the Democratic establishment and the knowledge that no front-runner has lost his grip on the nomination this late in the election season.
Edwards’ only victory came in his native South Carolina — and that was four weeks and 11 defeats ago.
“It’s hard, very hard,” Democratic strategist Joe Lockhart said of Edwards’ climb. But the former White House press secretary noted that Edwards has a habit of defying polls by quietly rounding up late-breaking voters.
“Everything he’s done so far in this race has happened the last weekend of the election. So looking through the lens of where we’re at now, it looks hard,” Lockhart said. “But it may not be the right lens.”
Many other Democrats, including some in Kerry’s campaign, predicted Kerry will cement the nomination this week.
“It’s going to be a sweep Tuesday,” said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist in Washington who helped run Al Gore’s 2000 campaign.
In Ohio, strategist Cathy Boyle poked at her food in a suburban diner and glumly said of Edwards, a candidate she has backed for months, “I don’t feel good about his chances.”
Ten states with a combined population of 94 million — about one-third of the U.S. total — choose 1,151 delegates Tuesday. That is more than 17 times the 67 delegates that were allocated in Iowa and New Hampshire to start the primary season.
In Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, Minnesota, Georgia and California, Edwards is stalking votes on terrain that is less friendly and familiar than the states that boosted his candidacy.
He campaigned for months in South Carolina and Iowa, two states where he scored his only victory and a surprise second place. He outworked his rivals in Wisconsin a week before giving Kerry a scare in the Feb. 17 primary.
But the 10-state march toward Super Tuesday has stretched Edwards thin. His vaunted charisma and showmanship are packing less of a punch in states dominated by television ads, momentum and organization.
“We’re not running against Kerry,” said Edwards strategist David Axelrod. “We’re running against time.”
Edwards did manage to keep pace with Kerry’s TV ad broadcasts and found an issue that could cut against Kerry in jobs-strapped Ohio. Kerry voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993, before Edwards came to the Senate.
Critical to Edwards’ overall strategy, a victory in Ohio would give him a lion’s share of the state’s 140 delegates and proof that he can beat Kerry in a diverse general-election battleground.
But recent public polls showed him trailing by 20 percentage points in Ohio. Kerry’s private poll put the gap at 40 points Friday. Edwards’ advisers say their surveys show Kerry’s advantage in the teens.
No matter how he cuts it, Edwards has a lot of catching up to do.
It’s the same in Georgia, a must-win state because of Edwards’ Southern ties. Kerry leads by single digits, according to one public poll, and by more than 25 points in Kerry’s own survey. Edwards’ internal survey shows him trailing Kerry, but just outside the poll’s margin of error.
A fresh alliance with supporters of fallen foe Howard Dean gives Edwards hope for victory in Minnesota, which holds caucuses. In an effort to save money, Edwards has not paid for polls in Minnesota. He visited the state Friday with nothing more than anecdotal evidence that the trip was worth his time.
He may regret that decision. Under pressure from anxious Minnesota supporters, including former Vice President Walter Mondale, Kerry paid for a poll and found Edwards trailing in the state by more than 30 percentage points, sources said.
Edwards’ supporters are hoping for a repeat of Wisconsin, where Edwards beat Kerry 55-22 percent among voters who made their choices in the election’s final three days. He narrowly beat or tied Kerry among late-deciders in South Carolina, Oklahoma and Iowa. But the last-minute shoppers broke for Kerry in every other state with exit polls.
Edwards also scored big among Republicans and independents in Wisconsin. He hopes that bodes well in the six states that will allow independents, Republicans or both to cast votes Tuesday. But exit polls show that Kerry has beaten Edwards among independents in six contests, while Edwards won among independents in just three.
With so little time, Edwards has struggled to define differences between himself and Kerry, beyond his sunny disposition pitted against Kerry’s solemn demeanor. His advisers are hoping for a race-reshaping moment, such as a debate. Kerry did not hurt himself in a California debate Thursday, they said, making Sunday’s debate in New York critical.
Edwards’ advisers say their candidate can win Ohio, Georgia and one other state Tuesday, most likely Minnesota. That would keep him in the race until March 9, when Edwards dreams of a sweep of Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas to set the table for victory a week later in Illinois.
He would still trail Kerry in delegates, experts say, if not momentum.
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Associated Press writers Emily Fredrix and Will Lester contributed to this report.