Go figure: Congress’ buddy system stumps mathematicians

What started as a simple project by a Georgia Institute of Technology student has unleashed a whole new set of questions — and a handful of answers — concerning an emerging but mostly untapped theory in the field of mathematics.

The fact that lawmakers tend to work in flocks, even when dishing out committee assignments, may come as little surprise. But math student Casey Warmbrand’s efforts to learn the why and how behind these assignments became so complicated, three professors have since joined the pursuit. And they’re still working on it, even though Warmbrand has moved on.

“Getting political implications from something like that is kind of hokey, I guess,” said Warmbrand, who graduated from Georgia Tech in December and is now pursuing a graduate degree at Arizona State. “Translating the numbers we’re getting from doing an analysis into political inferences seems to be kind of black magic.”

The theory of network analysis used in Warmbrand’s project is probably best recognized by the popular parlor game Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon. The object of the game involves tracing another actor to Bacon within six steps by linking co-stars from different movies.

For example, try linking Sean Connery to Bacon in five steps. Connery and Kim Basinger appeared together in “Never Say Never Again.” Basinger and Robert Redford were in “The Natural.” Redford and Dustin Hoffman were in “All The President’s Men.” Hoffman and Tom Cruise were in “Rain Man.” And Cruise and Bacon were co-stars in “A Few Good Men.”

That game underscores the small universe of Hollywood, but the congressional study is far more complicated because it seeks to find patterns in the overlap of various committees.

Their conclusions, one political scientist says, could help reveal much about how certain legislation is crafted.

“The thing that interests political scientists is, when you bend the rules, who bends them and who benefits from the bending?” said James Fowler, a political science professor at the University of California-Davis who has read the project. “It’s a completely different approach. You’re starting from complete ignorance about the content of those decisions but just looking at the results and inferring backward from that.”

Another Georgia Tech project used network analysis to look at college football teams and, using only their records, develop a ranking system. The result rivaled the formula used by the Bowl Championship Series to pick the representatives in the top bowl games.

Although the Congress study is incomplete, some early findings have emerged from the labyrinth of line graphs it has already produced. One major trend: Since Republicans took over control of the House in 1994, the connection between membership on various committees has become more defined.

Also, during the 107th Congress in 2002, the mathematicians found great carry-over from membership on the Rules Committee and a Homeland Security panel established after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

No mathematical formula is necessary to explain that phenomenon, explains Rules Committee spokeswoman Jo Maney. In the early days of the Homeland Security Committee, lawmakers most familiar with the rules — disproportionately from the Rules Committee — were assigned to get it off the ground.

Georgia Tech math faculty members Mason Porter and Peter Mucha, both of whom are moving on to other universities, continue working on the project along with University of Michigan physics professor Mark Newman.

Porter said he wasn’t aware of the guidelines for the Rules Committee. However, he said Maney’s response proves math can reveal a pattern, even if the mathematicians don’t know what created the pattern.

Of course, there are numerous other factors the formula doesn’t consider. Seniority, party loyalty, debating ability, fund-raising prowess and basic knowledge of certain issues all come into play. (For example, the Judiciary Committee includes almost all lawyers, and it’s full of experienced debaters, most of whom have been in Congress for years).

But Porter says the point of the project was to make mathematical conclusions without any outside information or bias.

“Even doing the dumbest thing possible, you don’t have to know any politics to see there’s something going on,” Porter said.